By Wole Olaoye
The coalition of anti-APC forces was long expected. Many people had predicted that it would come sooner, especially as it was in tandem with their belief that some politicians from the northern belt would not be able to tolerate four years of political harmattan. Being out of power at the presidential level, it was alleged, was tantamount to a near-death experience for those who had got used to being in power.
Pro-Tinubu elements contend that at this point in the Buhari regime when President Buhari had spent the better part of his tenure seeking overseas treatment for his undisclosed ailment, none of today’s change-seekers called for the president’s replacement. The motive for the recent coalescing of forces against President Tinubu, they argue, is anything but nationalistic.
No Ideology
In a milieu where there is no distinguishing ideological position separating Party A from Party B, all birds are of the same colour in the dark. Apart from their alphabetical robes, there is absolutely no ideological difference between YPP, PCP, NNPP, PDP, ADC or APC. The game is to choose the combination of letters you want, assemble fellow power seekers, put some seed money together and apply to the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC. And you may be on your way to becoming an emergency ‘nationalist’!
Because there are no ideological boundaries, you can move from PYP to YPP without batting an eyelid. Home is where stomach infrastructure is prioritised. In these parts, we can’t be bothered with the fine ideological details of radical or conservative economic theories. We are still at the base level of filling the insatiable stomach. Developmental ideas can wait.
The big wigs behind the coalition feared that INEC could sabotage their plans of seeking registration for a new political party, so they simply took over the African Democratic Congress (ADC). The national officers of the ADC dutifully stepped down for new eminent appointees — the former Senate President, David Mark, as national chairman, and ex-Governor Rauf Aregbesola as National Secretary. We are supposed to believe that they have all become ‘born again’ once they don the ADC face-cap and parrot the new slogan.
The ADC is not doing anything new. The ruling APC did the same thing in 2015 in its quest for power. The only problem with trying the same trick twice is that the audience may no longer be fooled by the sleight-of-hand. Since they don’t have brain injury, they can clearly recall the marked difference between a smiling father figure, Candidate Muhammadu Buhari, in a custom-made Savile row suit and the ‘standoff-ish’ President Buhari in Babanriga defending his iron-fist directives while young Nigerians were being gunned down during the EndSARS protests.
The list of political heavyweights in the new coalition is not unimpressive: Former VP Atiku Abubakar; former Senate President David Mark; Former PDP Chairman Prince Uche Secondus;
ex-Governor Aminu Tambuwal; Ex-Governor Liyel Imoke; ex-Governor Babangida Aliyu; Ex-Governor Sule Lamido; ex-Governor Sam Egwu; ex-Dep. Speaker Emeka Ihedioha; Senator Gabriel Suswam; Chief Dele Momodu; Ex-Governor Rauf Aregbesola; Ex-Governor Nasir El-Rufai; Ex-Governor Rotimi Amaechi; Ex-Chairman of APC, Chief John Oyegun; Former Attorney-General Abubakar Malami; former LP presidential candidate Peter Obi; former Vice Presidential candidate, Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed; Senator Ireti Kingibe and Senator Victor Umeh.
Stalwarts of the ruling APC have described the coalition as a conglomeration of expired have-beens whose best years are behind them— a charge to which the new ADC apparatchiks quickly responded by asking if the APC could publish the real age and antecedents of the president and other leaders of the ruling party.
Perceptive analysts, however, think this is no time for the usual infantile brickbat among politicians. If the coalition is to be taken seriously by Nigerians, then it must win their trust by being demonstrably different from the rest. Nigerians want to know what the ADC will do differently.
A coalition is defined as an organisation of diverse interest groups that join their human and material resources to produce a specific change that they are unable to deliver as independent individuals or separate organisations. The new ADC is therefore not starting from ground zero. It has tested political gladiators.
Obi Factor
Peter Obi is the Buhari of this era’s Opposition with a captive bag of votes from his ‘Obidient’ camp. The problem is that his captive votes will not be enough to give him majority votes with the required national spread. He is the kind of presidential material that any serious opposition party with an eye on the presidency needs.
Truth be told, a lot of work still has to be done to sell Obi’s candidature in the northern states. Ethno/religious politics, coupled with the weaponisation of memories of the civil war, make it difficult for the average voter in the North to naturally accept a candidate from the eastern parts as a presidential candidate. They would happily slate such a candidate for the VP slot which a politician of Obi’s current stature may find insulting.
Controversial as it may sound, the most viable opposition the coalition can muster is one with Peter Obi as presidential candidate. Once that is done, the group can then embark on the onerous task of selling him to the electorate across the nation.
How the math works is that President Tinubu will clear the Southwest and parts of the middle belt. He is stronger than Mr. Obi in the Northwest while he will also have a good showing in the Northeast, especially if Alhaji Atiku Abubakar is not on the ballot. Atiku will not be able to transfer his clout in the Northeast to Peter Obi, just as Buhari couldn’t gift his legendary ’12 million votes’ to Tinubu in 2023. A clever marketing of the Obi persona by professionals, as was done in 2015 for Buhari, may do some magic.
As regards President Tinubu, let’s look at the most incisive comments ever made by the opposition about his staying power. According to a former minister and state governor, Alhaji Sule Lamido, beating Tinubu will not be a walk in the park.
“I’ve known him since the days of the SDP, and I know his political style and his skill for getting what he wants, even when it’s questionable”, says Lamido in an interview published by the Daily Trust. “His strategies, some of which have left many astounded, reflect a calculated persistence. For example, in 2003, PDP swept the western region but couldn’t defeat him. Then, when Buhari was struggling, he called him, offering support and saying, “I’ll make you president.” And he did. Now, it’s ‘his turn’”.
In Nigeria, if a political opponent acknowledges your positive qualities, you must be some dude!
The Unknown
However, in spite of Lamido’s point above, any strategist worthy of the name would warn the ruling party to be wary of the freak Unknown Factor, the type that played out at student union parliamentary elections of the then University of Ife in the 70s when A4 size posters suddenly appeared on major walls around the campus with the legend, “EDE-WHAT?” Apparently, the unknown candidate couldn’t afford a proper poster and beautiful photographs like his opponents; but he had stirred curiosity in many people.
On the eve of the elections, new A4 posters replaced the old ones with the inscription, EDEFA FOR SRC. Just the name! No photos. No slogans. No razzmatazz. Surprise: Candidate Christopher Oladele Edefa won the parliamentary seat. With a landslide!
Beware the unknown!
